Elegant Treve to Augment a Legacy

This Sunday will see the 94th running of Europe's most prestigious flat race the £3.7 million Qatar Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe at Longchamp and it is set up to be one of the finest moments in sporting history as Treve aims to become the first horse since the races inception to win three Arc's on the bounce.

Some of the greats in racing history including Ribot and Alleged could only manage two Arc wins and the racing purist will be hoping Treve can put up another brilliant display under her regular jockey Thierry Jarnet. The occassion has even taken to the French public's imagination and a song titled 'Fly Away Treve' was released earlier last month by French musician Dominique Cotten to provide moral support for the thoroughbred, something that has rarely been heard of in the sport before.

The Filly

2015 has so far been blemish free for Treve, winning three out of her three starts, most recently destroying her rivals in the Group One Prix Vermaille over the same course and distance a few weeks ago. The Qatari owned superstar only faced inferior opposition, but there was no getting away from her trademark ability to cruise into a race and quicken in a matter of strides. Her 2013 win of the race when she raced three to four horses deep and made an early move into the straight yet still absolutely routing the likes of top class horses Orfevre and Ruler of the World was arguably the best Arc performance we have seen since the likes of Dancing Brave in 1986.

A year older and faced with different conditions and opponents, could she be vulnerable this time?

The main concern leading up to the race has been the state of the ground for Arc weekend. The ground has continued to dry out and the forecast for the rest of the weekend is for much of the same. Arguably her most disappointing performance of her career to date came in the Prince of Wales's Stakes at Royal Ascot in 2014 when the good to firm going was stated by her trainer Criquette Head-Maarek to have been "unsuitable".

Closer inspection on Treve's form shows that her most impressive performances have been on good ground and whilst her sire Motivator's progeny do generally appreciate give in the ground its hard to be confident that this is the case for Treve. The Longchamp Clerk of the Course has revealed that he expects the ground to be "good" for Arc day, which should not allow excuses to come into play.

The Opposition

Derby winner Golden Horn has looked rather less impressive and workman-like in his last two starts, losing his unbeaten record in the Juddmonte International and holding on in the Irish Champion Stakes. His return to better ground as publicised by his trainer John Gosden, should make him return a performance equal to his Derby one which would make him a big danger.

Flintshire trained by France's premier trainer Andre Fabre finished second in the race last year and comes into the race under the radar while Free Eagle rates an interesting contender based on his win at Royal Ascot and unlucky run behind Golden Horn in the Irish Champion Stakes. The three year old New Bay also trained by Fabre and in the same Khalid Abdullah ownership as Flintshire, has been very impressive in his last three starts and has the most potential to improve.

The Ballydole challenge this year comes from the filly Found, who was an eyecatcher last time behind Goldern Horn in the Irish Champion Stakes and could be suited by this step up in trip. Aside from Treve, fillies have enjoyed a good recent record in the race with four fillies winning in the last ten years, making it a runner to keep a close eye on.

Betting:

Treve -  Evs,    Golden Horn - 9/2,     New Bay - 9/2,     Free Eagle - 16/1,      

Found - 16/1,    Flintshire - 18/1      28/1 bar

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